Renewable Energy 

Serbian Academy of Sciences and Art

PROSPECTS FOR WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY IN SERBIA

Annual solar radiation produces 1,166 times more energy on its surface than Serbia consumes throughout the year, while the available theoretical wind energy potential is 750 - 2,250 times higher than final energy consumption. However, up to date, lignite dominates electricity production in Serbia.

According to the results of several relevant studies, and the work presented in the paper, the technical potential of the wind and solar energy in Serbia, based on deployment of commercially mature technologies (solar water heating, solar PV and wind farms) is estimated to 0.5 million tons of oil equivalent (Table 1).

Table 2 presents investment costs for exploitation of wind and solar technical potential in Serbia, based on the estimated unit investment costs of 450 EUR/ m² for larger solar water heating systems (health and tourism sectors), 650 EUR/ m² for solar water heating in households, 1.4 million EUR/MW for wind farms and 2.5 million EUR/MW for solar PV plants. Life expectancy for solar water heating installations is 20 years, and for wind farms and solar PV plants – 25 years.

Technology for wind and solar energy utilization	Production of electricity and heat
	GWh	Million toe
Solar Water Heating (2.26 million m² of solar panels)	2,812	0.2417
Solar PV (450 MW installed capacity)	657	0.0564
Wind farms (900 MW installed capacity)	2,250	0.1934
Total	5,719	0.4915

Тable 1. – Estimated technical potential for wind and solar energy utilization in Serbia

	Installed capacity required for exploitation of technical potential	Unit of installed capacity	Total Investment (€)	Annual Energy production (M toe)
Solar Water Heating - health and tourism	40,846	m²	18,380,745	0.0043
Solar Water Heating – households	2,224,271	m²	1,445,776,059	0.2374
Solar PV	450	MW	1,125,000,000	0.0564
Wind farms	900	MW	1,260,000,000	0.1934
Total	-	-	3,849,156,804	0.4915

Table 2. – Estimated investment costs for exploitation of wind and solar technical potential in Serbia

Total investments costs needed for the full realization of the technical potential (in Table 1) are estimated to 3.85 billion EUR - 1.46 billion EUR for solar water heating, 1.26 billion EUR for construction of wind farms, and 1.13 billion EUR for the construction of solar PV plants.

Figure 1 presents analysis of the specific investment costs per unit of produced renewable energy (in €/toe) by wind and solar.

Figure 3. – Specific investment cost per unit of produced renewable energy by wind and sun

Based on the assumptions that current water heating requirements are covered with electricity only, one of the conclusions of this paper is that in the case of full exploitation of the wind and solar technical potential - Serbia would need around 850 MW or 22% less of the installed capacities in lignite fired thermal power plants.

Except from the financial resources for the investments, the utilization of the available technical require substantial improvement of the identified economic, regulatory-administrative and technical conditions which at the moment hinder investments in the country.

Identified barriers to the wind and solar technology deployment in Serbia are shown in the table 3 along with the set of suggested measures for their removal.

Economic, regulatory-administrative and technical barriers for the wind and solar energy deployment in Serbia	Proposed measures to remove barriers
Disparity in energy prices in Serbia	·         Establishment of energy prices at cost-reflective level
Higher investment costs of renewable energy technologies and indirect subsidies for fossil fuels	·         Financial incentives and establishment of cost-reflective energy prices ·         Establishment of Governmental guarantee scheme to reduce costs of financing ·         Determination of the level of external costs of fossil fuels and their incorporation in the calculation of energy prices from fossil fuels
Unstable regulatory framework	·         Adoption of missing laws and bylaws ·         Establishment of mid and long-term regulatory framework for the utilization of wind and solar energy in Serbia
Restrictive laws and regulations in the process of permitting	·         Education of civil servants and implementation of clearly defined jurisdictions ·         Stakeholders participation in the establishment of NATURA 2000 network in Serbia
Lack of technical standards implementation	·         Adoption of technical rulebooks and obligatory use of technical standards; development of certification procedures for the equipment and installers
Complex and prolonged permitting and grid-connection procedures	·         Simplification of the permitting procedures ·         Establishment of Centers for integrated permitting (One-stop-shop concept) ·         Drafting of standardized power purchase agreement for the wind and solar electricity
Lack of publicly available information on wind and solar potential	·         Preparation of wind atlas for Serbia ·         Preparation of national spatial plan for the utilization of wind and solar energy in Serbia
Intermittency of wind and solar energy and the lack of reserve capacities for network management	·         Electricity transmission network upgrade and construction of pumped storage hydro power plants ·         Development of tools and methodologies for wind and solar energy forecasting
Lack of transmission and distribution network capacities	·         Preparation of indicative ten-year development plan for electricity transmission and distribution networks

Table 3. – Barriers for the wind and solar deployment in Serbia and measures for their removal

Complete paper can be downloaded here (serbian only)